Investors Anticipate Highs and Lows in 2013: Higher Taxes, Lower Unemployment, among Others

TD Ameritrade quarterly investor sentiment survey reveals expectations of Americans and their money

OMAHA, Neb.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Macro-economic factors and the state of the country’s balance sheet continue to weigh on the minds of retail investors, although younger investors tend to have a much rosier perspective than their elder counterparts. This is according to the quarterly retail investor sentiment survey from TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NYSE: AMTD).

“Investors are growing more optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, but they’re also looking to our nation’s leaders for a credible long-term plan to ensure that this recovery continues to gain momentum”

Finding #1: investors’ economic expectations for 2013 are a mixed bag of ups and downs

Today, 46 percent of investors say they are optimistic about their 3-month outlook for the U.S. economy, up slightly from 43 percent in September 2012. This sentiment, while not wildly bullish, is in-line with the varied views investors have about how the economy and markets will fare by the end of 2013, including:

1. The S&P 500 will be higher (55%)
2. U.S. Unemployment will be lower (54%)
3. U.S. GDP will be higher (45%)
4. Taxes will be higher (85%)
5. Corporate Earnings will be higher (53%)
6. The Federal Deficit will be higher (73%)

Additionally, younger investors were much less likely to have a pessimistic view of the economy. Just fourteen (14) percent of Generation Y and Z investors (those born from 1977-1994) said they were pessimistic. This compares to the 34 percent of Generation X investors (born 1965-1977), 26 percent of Boomers (born 1946-1964) and 38 percent of Matures (1930-1945) who said the same.

Finding #2: older investors worry more about the deficit; for younger investors it’s the economy

Investors are moderately confident in the stock market as a good place for their long-term investments, rating their confidence with a mean score of 6.6 out of 10. Of top concern are economic issues (26%), like unemployment and housing, and federal spending and deficit issues (25%).

However, age plays a part in determining which issue is more important. Thirty (30) percent of Mature investors, those born from 1930-1945, cited federal spending and the deficit as their greatest concern, versus only 17 percent of those in Generations X, Y and Z (born after 1965). On the flip-side, 30 percent of younger investors were more concerned about the economy, versus only 17 percent of Matures.

Finding #3: Washington has a role in encouraging investors to re-engage with the markets

Fifteen percent of investors surveyed say they are trading less today, and they are largely looking to Washington for reasons to re-engage. Their top five improvement indicators include:

1. Federal spending (43%)
2. The economy (41%)
3. Political gridlock in Washington (35%)
4. The markets in general (31%)
5. The nation’s tax code (30%)

“Investors are growing more optimistic about the future of the U.S. economy, but they’re also looking to our nation’s leaders for a credible long-term plan to ensure that this recovery continues to gain momentum,” said Tom Bradley, president of retail distribution for TD Ameritrade, Inc., a broker-dealer subsidiary of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation. “Our clients are turning to us more than ever for guidance and help as a result of the uncertainty in the environment. In fact, referrals to guidance-based products and advice channels are at all-time highs.”

The TD Ameritrade Quarterly Investor Sentiment Survey measures the opinions of retail investors on news and issues relevant to today’s markets. For information on how retail investors are actually behaving in this environment, check out the Investor Movement Index^SM (IMX), a proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade that measures and aggregates the historical trading activities of TD Ameritrade clients and lends insight into how bullish, bearish or neutral they may be about the market.

The TD Ameritrade Newsroom includes a deep wide selection of past research studies capturing the pulse of retail investors and independent registered investment advisors on topics ranging from retirement and young money, to taxes and general market sentiment. For the latest news and information about TD Ameritrade, follow the company on Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.

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About the Survey
1,022 investors participated in an online survey conducted by Research Now on behalf of TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation from Jan. 2–10, 2013 and offered their views on economic conditions and outlook for the market in general. These investors have at least $10,000 in investable assets, own securities in brokerage accounts, are 18 years or older, are involved in managing their portfolios, and have traded securities at least once in the past 12 months. The 1,022 survey respondents represent a random sample of investors selected from a consumer panel of individuals in the U.S. who have access to the Internet. The margin of error in this survey is ±3.0%. This means that in 19 cases out of 20, survey results based on 1,089 respondents will differ by no more than 3.0 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking the opinions of all eligible individuals in the U.S. who are online. Research Now and TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation are separate, unaffiliated companies and are not responsible for each other's products and services.

About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
Millions of investors and independent registered investment advisors (RIAs) have turned to TD Ameritrade’s (NYSE: AMTD) technology, people and education to help make investing and trading easier to understand and do. Online or over the phone. In a branch or with an independent RIA. First-timer or sophisticated trader. Our clients want to take control, and we help them decide how - bringing Wall Street to Main Street for more than 36 years. TD Ameritrade has time and again been recognized as a leader in investment services. Please visit TD Ameritrade’s newsroom or www.amtd.com for more information.

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About Research Now
Research Now is the leading global online sampling and online data collection company. With over 6 million panelists in 38 countries worldwide, Research Now enables companies to listen to and interact with real consumers and business decision makers in order to make key business decisions.